{"id":153,"date":"2018-01-18T15:17:29","date_gmt":"2018-01-18T15:17:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/?page_id=153"},"modified":"2025-02-19T02:56:31","modified_gmt":"2025-02-19T02:56:31","slug":"publications","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/publications\/","title":{"rendered":"Publications"},"content":{"rendered":"

Refereed Publications<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., A. Zeeb, A. M. Haberlie, V. A Gensini, and A. Michaelis, 2025: The future of snowstorms in central and eastern North America.\u00a0International Journal of Climatology<\/i>, doi\/10.1002\/joc.8770<\/span><\/p>\n

Kaminski, K., W. S. Ashley, A. M. Haberlie, and V. A. Gensini, 2025: Future derecho potential in the United States.\u00a0Journal of Climate<\/i>,\u00a038<\/b>, 3-26.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bundy, L., V. Gensini, and W. S. Ashley, 2024: United States pasture and rangeland conditions: 1995\u20132022.\u00a0Agronomy Journal<\/i>,\u00a0117<\/b>, e21736.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Wallace, B., A. M. Haberlie, V. A. Gensini, W. S. Ashley, and A. C. Michaelis, 2024: Cause and characteristics of changes in mesoscale convective systems within a convection-permitting regional climate model.\u00a0Journal of Climate<\/i>,\u00a038<\/b>, 461-479.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stinnett, S. N., V. A. Gensini, A. M. Haberlie, A. C. Michaelis, and W. S. Ashley, 2024: Changes in extreme daily precipitation over the contiguous United States from convection-permitting simulations.\u00a0Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology<\/i>,\u00a063<\/b>, 1523-1543.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A., W. S. Ashley, A. C. Michaelis, A. M. Haberlie, J. Goodin, and B. C. Wallace, 2024: Hailstone size dichotomy in a warming climate.\u00a0npj Climate and Atmospheric Science<\/i>,\u00a07<\/b>, 185.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Strader, S. M., V. A. Gensini, W. S. Ashley, and A. N. Wagner, 2024: Changes in tornado risk and societal vulnerability leading to greater tornado impact potential.\u00a0npj Natural Hazards<\/i>,\u00a01<\/b>, 20.<\/span><\/p>\n

Haberlie, A. M., B. Wallace, W. S. Ashley, V. Gensini, and A. Michaelis, 2024: Mesoscale convective system activity in the United States under intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios.\u00a0Climatic Change<\/i>,\u00a0177<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas, M. A., A. Michaelis, N. S. Oakley, J. W. Kean, V. A. Gensini, and W. S. Ashley, 2024: Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows.\u00a0npj Nat. Hazards,<\/i>\u00a01<\/b>, 14.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bundy, L., V. Gensini, W. S. Ashley, A. Haberlie, and D. Changnon, 2024: Analysis of United States crop conditions: 1986\u20132022.\u00a0Agronomy Journal<\/i>,\u00a0116<\/b>, 1397-1416.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zeeb, A. W., W. S. Ashley, A. M. Haberlie, V. A. Gensini, and A. C. Michaelis, 2024: Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate.\u00a0International Journal of Climatology<\/i>,\u00a044<\/b>, 1489-1512.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrews, M., V. A. Gensini, A. Haberlie, W. S. Ashley, and M. Taszarek, 2024: Climatology of the elevated mixed layer over the contiguous United States and northern Mexico using ERA5: 1979\u20132021.\u00a0Journal of Climate<\/i>,\u00a037<\/b>, 1833-1851.<\/span><\/p>\n

Wallace, B. C., A. M. Haberlie, W. S. Ashley, V. A. Gensini, and A. C. Michaelis, 2023: Decomposing the precipitation response to climate change in convection allowing simulations over the conterminous United States.\u00a0Earth and Space Science<\/i>,\u00a010<\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Haberlie, A. M., W. S. Ashley, V. A. Gensini, and A. Michaelis, 2023: The ratio of mesoscale convective system precipitation to total precipitation increases in future climate change scenarios.\u00a0npj Climate and Atmospheric Science<\/i>,\u00a06<\/b>, 150.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., A. M. Haberlie, and\u00a0V. A. Gensini, 2022: The future of supercells in the United States.\u00a0Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0DOI:\u00a010.1175\/BAMS-D-22-0027.1<\/span><\/p>\n

Hecht, C. W., Michaelis, A. C., Martin, A. C., Cordeira, J. M., Cannon, F., & Ralph, F. M., 2022: Illustrating Ensemble Predictability across Scales Associated with the 13\u201315 February 2019 Atmospheric River Event,\u00a0<\/span>Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.<\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>103<\/em>(3), E911-E922. DOI: 10.1175\/BAMS-D-20-0292.1<\/span><\/p>\n

Haberlie, A. M., W. S. Ashley, C. Battisto, and\u00a0V. A. Gensini, 2022: Intermediate and extreme warming scenarios modify future thunderstorm activity.\u00a0Geophys. Res. Lett.<\/em>\u00a05<\/strong>, 49, e2022GL098779. DOI:\u00a010.1029\/2022GL098779<\/span><\/p>\n

Fish, M. A., Done, J. M., Swain, D. L., Wilson, A. M., Michaelis, A. C., Gibson, P. B., & Ralph, F. M., 2022: Large-Scale Environments of Successive Atmospheric River Events Leading to Compound Precipitation Extremes in California,\u00a0J. Climate<\/em>,\u00a05<\/strong>, 1515-1536. DOI: 10.1175\/JCLI-D-21-0168.1<\/p>\n

Gensini V. A.\u00a0, A. M. Haberlie, and W. S. Ashley, 2022: Convection-permitting simulations of historical and possible future climate over the contiguous United States.\u00a0Clim. Dyn.<\/em>, DOI:\u00a0 10.1007\/s00382-022-06306-0<\/p>\n

Miller, D. E.,\u00a0<\/span>V. A. Gensini, and B. S. Barrett, 2022: Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency.\u00a0<\/span>npj Climate and Atmos. Science<\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>5<\/strong>, 37. DOI:\u00a010.1038\/s41612-022-00263-5<\/span><\/p>\n

Bundy, L. R., Gensini, V. A., & Russo, M. S., 2022. Insured Corn Losses in the US from Weather and Climate Perils.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 61, 969\u2013988. DOI: 10.1175\/JAMC-D-21-0245.1<\/span><\/p>\n

Michaelis, A. C., A. Gershunov, A. Weyant, M. A. Fish, T. Shulgina, and F. M. Ralph, 2022: Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm that Contributed to California’s Oroville Dam Crisis. Earth\u2019s Future, 10, e2021EF002537, doi:10.1029\/2021EF002537.<\/p>\n

Stevens, B. R., and W. S. Ashley, 2022: Fatal weather-related carbon monoxide poisonings in the United States. Weather, Climate, and Society. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/WCAS-D-21-0130.1<\/p>\n

Bundy L. and V. A. Gensini, 2021: An assessment of USDA corn condition ratings across the U.S. Corn Belt. Agron. J., , DOI: 10.1002\/agj2.20973<\/p>\n

Michaelis, A. C., A. C. Martin, M. A. Fish, C. W. Hecht, and F. M. Ralph, 2021: Modulation of Atmospheric Rivers by Mesoscale Frontal Waves and Latent Heating: Comparison of Two U.S. West Coast Events. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 2755\u20132776, doi:10.1175\/MWR-D-20-0364.1.<\/p>\n

Lackmann, G. M., R. L. Miller, W. A. Robinson, and A. C. Michaelis, 2021: Persistent Anomaly Changes in High-Resolution Climate Simulations. J. Climate, 34, 5425\u20135442, doi:10.1175\/JCLI-D-20-0465.1.<\/p>\n

Michaelis, A. C., and G. M. Lackmann, 2021: Storm-Scale Dynamical Changes of Extratropical Transition Events in Present-Day and Future High-Resolution Global Simulations. J. Climate, 34, 5037\u20135062, doi:10.1175\/JCLI-D-20-0472.1.<\/p>\n

Gensini V. A., C. Converse, W. S. Ashley, and M. Taszarek, 2021: Machine learning classification of significant tornadoes and hail in the U.S. using ERA5 proximity soundings. Wea. Forecasting, 36, 2143-2160, DOI: 10.1175\/WAF-D-21-0056.1<\/p>\n

Fritzen, R., V. Lang, and V. A. Gensini, 2021: Trends and variability of North American cool-season extratropical cyclones: 1979\u20132019. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 60, 1319-1331, DOI: 10.1175\/JAMC-D-20-0276.1<\/p>\n

Eboh, H., C. Gallaher, T. Pingel, and W. S. Ashley, 2020: Risk perception in small island developing states: A case study in the Commonwealth of Dominica. Nat. Hazards<\/em>. DOI: 10.1007\/s11069-020-04342-9<\/p>\n

Haberlie, A. M., W. S. Ashley, and M. Karpinski, 2020: Mean storms: Composites of radar reflectivity images during two decades of severe thunderstorm events. International Journal of Climatology<\/em>. DOI 10.1002\/joc.6804<\/p>\n

Demirdjian, R., J. D. Doyle, C. A. Reynolds, J. R. Norris, A. C. Michaelis, and F. M. Ralph, 2020: A Case Study of the Physical Processes Associated with the Atmospheric River Initial Condition Sensitivity from an Adjoint Model. J. Atmos. Sciences, 77, 691\u2013709, doi:10.1175\/JAS-D-19-0155.1.<\/p>\n

Taszarek, M., N. Pilguj, J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, H. E. Brooks, and P. Szuster, 2020: Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA2 with sounding data over Europe and North America. J. Climate<\/em>, DOI: 10.1175\/JCLI-D-20-0484.1<\/p>\n

W. S., A. M. Haberlie, and V. A. Gensini, 2020: Reduced frequency and size of late twenty-first-century snowstorms over North America. Nat. Clim. Chang., <\/em>1\u20136.<\/p>\n

Gensini V. A. , A. M. Haberlie, and P. T. Marsh, 2020: Practically perfect hindcasts of severe convective storms. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.<\/em>, 101<\/strong>, E1259\u2013E1278<\/p>\n

Gensini V. A. , B. S. Barrett, J. T. Allen, D. Gold, and P. Sirvatka, 2020: The Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecast (ERTAF) Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.<\/em>, 101<\/strong>, E700\u2013E709.<\/p>\n

Ash, K, M. J. Egnoto, S. M. Strader, W. S. Ashley, D. B. Roueche, K. E. Klockow-McClain, D. Caplen, and M. Dickerson, 2020: Structural forces: Perception and vulnerability factors for tornado sheltering within mobile and manufactured housing in Alabama and Mississippi, USA. Weather, Climate, and Society<\/em>, 12<\/strong>, 453\u2013472.<\/p>\n

Michaelis, A. C., and G. M. Lackmann, 2019: Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations. J. Climate, 32, 8733\u20138753, doi:10.1175\/JCLI-D-19-0259.1.<\/div>\n
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Michaelis, A. C., G. M. Lackmann, and W. A. Robinson, 2019: Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales \u2013 Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3725\u20133743, doi:10.5194\/gmd-12-3725-2019.<\/div>\n

Tang, B. H.,\u00a0<\/span>V. A. Gensini, and C. R. Homeyer, 2019: Trends in United States large hail environments and observations.\u00a0<\/span>npj Climate and Atmos. Science.,\u00a0<\/em>2<\/strong>, 45. DOI:\u00a010.1038\/s41612-018-0048-2<\/span><\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A., D. Gold, J. T. Allen, and B. S. Barrett, 2019: Extended U.S. tornado outbreak during late May 2019: A forecast of opportunity.\u00a0<\/span>Geophys. Res. Lett.<\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>46<\/strong>. DOI: 10.1029\/2019GL084470<\/span><\/p>\n

Changnon, D., and\u00a0<\/span>V. A. Gensini, 2019: Changing spatiotemporal patterns of 5- and 10-day Illinois heavy precipitation amounts, 1900-2018.\u00a0<\/span>J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.<\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>58<\/strong>, 1523\u20131533. DOI: 10.1175\/JAMC-D-18-0335.1<\/span><\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., A. M. Haberlie, and J. Strohm, 2019: A climatology of quasi-linear convective systems and their hazards in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Weather and Forecasting<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>34<\/b>, 1605-1631.<\/span><\/p>\n

Haberlie, A. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2019: A radar-based climatology of mesoscale convective systems in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Journal of Climate<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>32<\/b>,\u00a01591-1606.<\/span><\/p>\n

Haberlie, A. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2019: Climatological representation of mesoscale convective systems in a dynamically downscaled climate simulation.\u00a0<\/span>International Journal of Climatology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>39<\/b>, 1144-1153.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A., and L. B. de Guenni, 2019: Environmental covariate representation of seasonal U.S. tornado frequency.\u00a0<\/span>J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.<\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>58<\/strong>, 1353\u20131367. DOI: 10.1175\/JAMC-D-18-0305.1<\/span><\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A., and M. K. Tippett, 2019: Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) predictions of days 1\u201315 U.S. tornado and hail frequencies.\u00a0<\/span>Geophys. Res. Lett.<\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>46<\/strong>, 2922\u20132930. DOI: 10.1029\/2018GL081724<\/span><\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A.,\u00a0<\/em>and H. E. Brooks, 2018:\u00a0Spatial trends in United States tornado activity.\u00a0<\/span>npj Climate and Atmos. Science.,\u00a0<\/em>1<\/strong>, 1\u20135. DOI:\u00a010.1038\/s41612-018-0048-2<\/span><\/p>\n

Molina, M. J., J. T. Allen, and\u00a0V. A. Gensini, 2018: The Gulf of Mexico influence on subseasonal and seasonal CONUS winter tornado variability.\u00a0J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.<\/em>\u00a0DOI:\u00a010.1175\/JAMC-D-18-0046.1<\/span><\/p>\n

Allen, J. T., M. J. Molina, and\u00a0<\/span>V. A. Gensini, 2018: Modulation of annual cycle of tornadoes by El Nino-Southern Oscillation.\u00a0Geophys. Res. Lett.<\/em>,\u00a045<\/strong>, 5708\u20135717.\u00a0<\/em>DOI:\u00a010.1029\/2018GL077482\u00a0[<\/span>PDF<\/a><\/u>]<\/span><\/p>\n

Strader, S. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2018: Fine-scale assessment of mobile home tornado vulnerability in the Central and Southeast U.S.\u00a0<\/span>Weather, Climate, and Society<\/i>. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Haberlie, A. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2018: Identifying mesoscale convective systems in radar mosaics. Part I. Segmentation and classification.\u00a0<\/span>Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology<\/i>. 10.1175\/JAMC-D-17-0293.1 [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Haberlie, A. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2018: Identifying mesoscale convective systems in radar mosaics. Part II. Tracking and application.\u00a0<\/span>Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology<\/i>. 10.1175\/JAMC-D-17-0294.1 [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A.,\u00a0and J. T. Allen, 2018: United States hail frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation.\u00a0<\/span>Geophys. Res. Lett.<\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>45<\/strong>, 1611\u20131620. DOI: 10.1002\/2017GL076822 [<\/span>PDF<\/a><\/u>]<\/span><\/p>\n

Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. J. Krmenec, 2018: How land use alters the tornado disaster landscape.\u00a0<\/span>Applied Geography<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>94<\/b>, 18\u201329. [PDF<\/a><\/span>]<\/p>\n

Michaelis, A. C., J. Willison, G. M. Lackmann, and W. A. Robinson, 2017: Changes in Winter North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Regional Pseudo-Global Warming Simulations. J. Climate, 30, 6905\u20136925, doi:10.1175\/JCLI-D-16-0697.1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Freeman, A., and W. S. Ashley, 2017: Changes in the U.S. hurricane disaster landscape: The relationship between risk and exposure.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards,<\/i>\u00a0<\/span>88<\/b>, 659\u2013682. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ferguson, A. P., and W. S. Ashley, 2017: Spatiotemporal analysis of residential flood exposure in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>87<\/b>, 989\u20131016. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. J. Krmenec, 2017: Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential.\u00a0<\/span>Climatic Change,<\/i>\u00a0<\/span>141<\/b>, 301\u2013313.\u00a0<\/span><\/i>[<\/span>PDF<\/a>] [featured as\u00a0<\/span>News & Views piece in\u00a0<\/span>Nature Climate Change<\/i><\/a>]<\/span><\/p>\n

Briley, L. J., W. S. Ashley, R. B. Rood, and A. Krmenec, 2017:\u00a0 The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making.\u00a0<\/span>Theoretical and Applied Climatology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>127<\/b>, 643-654. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. J. Krmenec, 2017: Observed and projected changes in United States tornado exposure.\u00a0<\/span>Weather, Climate, and Society<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>9<\/b>, 109-123. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Gensini<\/span><\/span>, V. A., and A. Marinaro, 2016: Tornado frequency in the United States related to global relative angular momentum.\u00a0<\/span>Mon. Wea. Rev.<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>144<\/b>,\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/i>801-810.\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/i>DOI: 10.1175\/MWR-D-15-0289.1\u00a0<\/span><\/i>[PDF<\/span><\/a>] (Paper of note in Science<\/em><\/a>)<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., and S. M. Strader, 2016:\u00a0Recipe for disaster: How the dynamic ingredients of risk and exposure are changing the tornado disaster landscape.\u00a0<\/span>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>97<\/b>, 767-786.\u00a0 [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Fultz, A. J., and W. S. Ashley, 2016: Fatal weather-related general aviation accidents in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Physical Geography<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>37<\/b>, 291-312. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Strader, S. M., T. J. Pingel, and W. S. Ashley, 2016: A Monte Carlo model for estimating tornado impacts.\u00a0<\/span>Meteorological Applications<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>23<\/b>, 269-281. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Haberlie, A., W. S. Ashley, A. Fultz, and S. Eagan, 2016:\u00a0 The effect of reservoirs on the climatology of warm-season thunderstorms in Southeast Texas, USA.\u00a0<\/span>International Journal of Climatology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>36<\/b>, 1808\u20131820. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Roeder, W. P., B. H. Cummins, K. L. Cummins, R. L. Holle, and W. S. Ashley, 2015:\u00a0 Lightning fatality risk map of the conterminous United States.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>79<\/b>, 1681-1692. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Strader, S. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2015: The expanding bull’s-eye effect.\u00a0<\/span>Weatherwise<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>68<\/b>, 23-29. [PDF<\/a>; quick\u00a0<\/span>explanation<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>of effect]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., S. Strader, D. Dziubla, and A. Haberlie, 2015:\u00a0 Driving blind: Weather-related vision hazards and fatal motor vehicle crashes.\u00a0<\/span>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>96<\/b>, 755-778. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Rosencrants, T., and W. S. Ashley, 2015:\u00a0 Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five U.S. metropolitan areas.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>78<\/b>, 121-140. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, and J. Walker, 2015: Changes in volcanic hazard exposure in the Northwest USA from 1940 to 2100.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>77<\/b>, 1365-1392. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Haberlie, A., W. S. Ashley, and T. Pingel, 2015:\u00a0 The effect of urbanization on the climatology of thunderstorm initiation.\u00a0<\/span>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>141<\/b>, 663-675. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Strader, S., W. S. Ashley, A. Irizarry, and S. Hall, 2015: A climatology of tornado intensity assessments.\u00a0<\/span>Meteorological Applications<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>22<\/b>, 513-524. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Tippett, M. K., J. T. Allen,\u00a0V. A. Gensini, and H. E. Brooks, 2015: Climate and hazardous convective weather.\u00a0<\/span>Cur. Climate Change Rep.<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/span>1\u00a0<\/span><\/b>(2),\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/i>60-73.\u00a0<\/span><\/b>DOI: 10.1007\/s40641-015-0006-6 [<\/span>PDF<\/a>]<\/span><\/p>\n

Gensini<\/span><\/span>, V. A., and T. L. Mote, 2015: Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3.\u00a0<\/span>Climatic Change<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>129<\/b>,\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/i>307-321.\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/i>DOI: 10.1007\/s10584-014-1320-z\u00a0<\/span><\/i>[PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Marinaro, A., S.D. Hilberg, D. Changnon, and J.R. Angel, 2015: The North Pacific-driven severe Midwest winter of 2013-14. J. Applied Meteor. and Climatology, <\/em>54<\/strong>, 2141-2151.<\/p>\n

Haberlie, A., K. Gale, D. Changnon, and M. Tannura, 2014: Climatology of tropical system rainfall on the eastern Corn Belt.\u00a0 J. Applied Meteor. and Climatology, <\/em>53<\/strong>, <\/em>395-405<\/p>\n

Gensini<\/span><\/span>, V. A., and T. L. Mote, 2014: Estimations of hazardous convective weather in the United States using dynamical downscaling.\u00a0<\/span>J. Climate<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>27<\/b>, 6581-6598. DOI: 10.1175\/JCLI-D-13-00777.1 [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., S. Strader, T. Rosencrants, and A. J. Krmenec, 2014: Spatiotemporal changes in tornado hazard exposure: The case of the expanding bull’s eye effect in Chicago, IL.\u00a0<\/span>Weather, Climate, and Society,<\/i>\u00a0<\/span>6<\/b>, 175-193. [PDF<\/a>; “Paper of Note<\/a>” in\u00a0<\/span>BAMS<\/i>; quick\u00a0<\/span>explanation<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>of effect].<\/p>\n

Strader, S., and W. S. Ashley, 2014: Cloud-to-ground lightning signatures of long-lived tornadic supercells in the Southeastern U.S. on 27-28 April 2011.\u00a0<\/span>Physical Geography<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>35<\/b>, 273-296. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Gensini<\/span><\/span>, V. A., T. L. Mote, and H. E. Brooks, 2014: Severe thunderstorm reanalysis environments and collocated radiosonde observations.\u00a0<\/span>J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>53<\/b>,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>742-751.\u00a0<\/span><\/i>DOI: 10.1175\/JAMC-D-13-0263.1 [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A.,\u00a0C. A. Ramseyer, and T. L. Mote, 2014: Future convective environments using NARCCAP.\u00a0<\/span>Int. J. Climatol.<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>34<\/b>, 1699-1705. DOI:\u00a010.1002\/joc.3769 [PDF<\/a>].<\/p>\n

Barrett, B. S., and\u00a0<\/span>V. A. Gensini, 2013: Variability of central U.S. April-May tornado day likelihood by phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.\u00a0<\/span>Geophys. Res. Lett.<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>40<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/i>(11),\u00a0<\/span><\/i>2790-2795.\u00a0<\/span><\/i>DOI:\u00a010.1002\/grl.50522 [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Stallins, J. A., J. Carpenter, M. Bentley, W. Ashley, and J. Mulholland, 2013: Weekend-weekday aerosols and geographic variability in cloud-to-ground lightning for the urban region of Atlanta, Georgia, USA.\u00a0<\/span>Regional Environmental Change<\/i>.\u00a0<\/span>13<\/b>, 137-151. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Knox, J.\u00a0 A., J.\u00a0 A. Rackley, A.\u00a0 W. Black,\u00a0V.\u00a0 A. Gensini, M. Butler, C. Dunn, T. Gallo, M.\u00a0 R. Hunter, L. Lindsey, M. Phan, R. Scroggs, and S. Brustad, 2013: Tornado debris characteristics and trajectories during the 27 April 2011 super outbreak as determined using social media data.\u00a0<\/span>Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>94<\/b>,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>1371-1380.\u00a0<\/span><\/i>DOI: 10.1175\/BAMS-D-12-00036.1\u00a0<\/span><\/i>[PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

\n
Michaelis, A. C., and G. M. Lackmann, 2013: Numerical modeling of a historic storm: Simulating the Blizzard of 1888. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4092-4097, doi:10.1002\/grl.50750<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Ashley, W. S., M. L. Bentley, and J. A. Stallins, 2012: Urban-induced thunderstorm modification in the Southeast United States.\u00a0<\/span>Climatic Change,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>113<\/b>, 481-498. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Bentley, M. L., J. A. Stallins, and W. S. Ashley, 2012: Synoptic environments favorable for urban-enhanced convection in Atlanta, Georgia.\u00a0<\/span>International Journal of Climatology,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>32<\/b>, 1287-1294. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Climatology of potentially severe convective environments from the North American regional reanalysis.\u00a0<\/span>Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>6<\/b>(8), 1-40. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Paulikas, M. J., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Thunderstorm hazard vulnerability for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan region.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>58<\/b>, 1077-1092. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Spencer, J. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Avalanche fatalities in the western United States: A comparison of three databases.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>58<\/b>, 31-44. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Black, A. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: The relationship between tornadic and nontornadic convective wind fatalities and warnings.\u00a0<\/span>Weather, Climate, and Society<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>3<\/b>, 31-47. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Schoen, J., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: A climatology of fatal convective wind events by storm type.\u00a0<\/span>Weather and Forecasting,<\/i>\u00a0<\/span>26<\/b>, 109-121. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Gensini<\/span><\/span>, V. A.,\u00a0<\/span>A. W<\/span>. Black, D. Changnon, and S. A. Changnon, 2011: September 2008 heavy rains in Northeast Illinois: Meteorological analysis and impacts.\u00a0<\/span>Trans. Ill. State Acad. Sci.<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>104<\/b>, 17<\/span>–33.\u00a0<\/span><\/b>[PDF<\/a><\/span>]<\/p>\n

Black, A. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: Nontornadic convective wind fatalities in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>54<\/b>,<\/i>\u00a0<\/span>355-366. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Gensini, V. A., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: An examination of rip current fatalities in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>54<\/b>, 159-175. [PDF<\/a>; Formal\u00a0<\/span>comment<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>and\u00a0<\/span>reply<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Bentley, M. L., W. S. Ashley, and J. A. Stallins, 2010: Climatological radar delineation of urban convection for Atlanta, Georgia.\u00a0<\/span>International Journal of Climatology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>30<\/b>, 1589-1594. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Bentley, M., T. Stallins, and W. Ashley, 2010: The Atlanta thunderstorm effect.\u00a0<\/span>Weatherwise<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>63<\/b>, 24-29. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., and C. W. Gilson, 2009:\u00a0 A reassessment of U.S. lightning mortality.\u00a0<\/span>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>90<\/b>, 1501\u20131518. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., A. J. Krmenec, and R. Schwantes, 2008:\u00a0 Vulnerability due to nocturnal tornadoes.\u00a0<\/span>Weather and Forecasting<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>23<\/b>, 795-807. [PDF<\/a>; Paper of Note in\u00a0<\/span>BAMS<\/i>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, S. T., and W. S. Ashley, 2008:\u00a0 Flood fatalities in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>47<\/b>, 805-818. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Hall, S. G., and W. S. Ashley, 2008:\u00a0 The effects of urban sprawl on the vulnerability to a significant tornado impact in northeastern Illinois.\u00a0<\/span>Natural Hazards Review<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>9<\/b>, 209-219. [abstract<\/a>; email for PDF]<\/p>\n

Ashley, S. T., and W. S. Ashley, 2008:\u00a0 The storm morphology of deadly flooding events in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>International Journal of Climatology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>28<\/b>, 493-503. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., and A. W. Black, 2008:\u00a0 Fatalities associated with nonconvective high-wind events in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>47<\/b>, 717-725. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., 2007:\u00a0 Spatial and temporal analysis of tornado fatalities in the United States: 1880-2005.\u00a0<\/span>Weather and Forecasting<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>22<\/b>, 1214-1228. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, and M. L. Bentley, 2007:\u00a0 An extensive episode of derecho-producing convective systems in the United States during May-June 1998: A multi-scale analysis and review.\u00a0 Meteorological Applications,<\/i>\u00a0<\/span>14<\/b>, 227-244. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Suckling, P. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2006:\u00a0 Spatial and temporal characteristics of tornado path direction.\u00a0<\/span>The Professional Geographer<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>58<\/b>, 20-38. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, and M. L. Bentley, 2005:\u00a0 On the episodic nature of derecho-producing convective systems in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>International Journal of Climatology<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>25<\/b>, 1915-1932. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., and T. L. Mote, 2005:\u00a0 Derecho hazards in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>86<\/b>, 1577-1592. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, P. G. Dixon, S. L. Trotter, J. D. Durkee, E. J. Powell, and A. J. Grundstein, 2003:\u00a0 Distribution of mesoscale convective complex rainfall in the United States.\u00a0<\/span>Monthly Weather Review<\/i>,\u00a0<\/span>131<\/b>, 3003-3017. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Other selected publications:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., and V. Gensini, 2017: Weather, extreme weather, and extreme storms.\u00a0<\/span>The International Encyclopedia of Geography<\/i>. Richardson et al. Eds., Wiley-Blackwell. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., S. M. Strader, T. Rosencrants, and A. J. Krmenec, 2014: Is the Expanding Bull’s Eye Effect leading to greater and more frequent weather disasters? Paper of Note.\u00a0<\/span>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society<\/i>.\u00a0<\/span>95<\/b>, 510-511. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Ashley, W. S., P. Young, and F. Schwantes, 2013: An inexpensive webcam system for capturing live skyscapes and time-lapse cloudscapes. Preprints,\u00a0<\/span>22nd Symposium on Education<\/i>, American Meteorological Society. 4 pp. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Fuhrmann, C., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: Lightning.\u00a0<\/span>Encyclopedia of Geography<\/i>. B. Warf Ed., SAGE Publications, 1780-1784.<\/p>\n

Sandstrom, M., D. Changnon, and B. Flood, 2007: Improving our understanding of H. zea\u00a0<\/em>migration in the Midwest: Assessment of Source Populations. Manuscript for Symposium Proceeedings on Helicoverpa zea<\/em> Susceptibility to Pyrethroids in the Midwest. Online.\u00a0Plant Health Progress <\/em>doi:10.1094\/PHP-2007-0MDD-01-RV, 9 pp.<\/p>\n

Fuhrmann, C., and W. S. Ashley, 2006: Cloud-to-ground lightning characteristics of derecho-producing convective systems in the central and southern Great Plains. Preprints,\u00a0<\/span>23rd Annual Conference on Severe Local Storms<\/i>, American Meteorological Society. 6 pp. [PDF<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Refereed Publications Ashley, W. S., A. Zeeb, A. M. Haberlie, V. A Gensini, and A. Michaelis, 2025: The future of snowstorms in central and eastern North America.\u00a0International Journal of Climatology, doi\/10.1002\/joc.8770 Kaminski, K., W. S. Ashley, A. M. Haberlie, and V. A. Gensini, 2025: Future derecho potential in the United […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-153","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=153"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":457,"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/153\/revisions\/457"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wcs.niu.edu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}