Refereed Publications
Allen, J. T., M. J. Molina, and V. A. Gensini, 2018: Modulation of annual cycle of tornadoes by El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., DOI: 10.1029/2018GL077482
, 2018: A Method for Identifying Midlatitude Mesoscale Convective Systems in Radar Mosaics. Part II: Tracking. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0294.1
, 2018: A Method for Identifying Midlatitude Mesoscale Convective Systems in Radar Mosaics. Part I: Segmentation and Classification. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0293.1
Gensini, V. A., and J. T. Allen, 2018: United States hail frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076822 [PDF]
Freeman, A., and W. S. Ashley: Changes in the U.S. hurricane disaster landscape: The relationship between risk and exposure. Natural Hazards. DOI: 0.1007/s11069-017-2885-4 [PDF]
Ferguson, A. P., and W. S. Ashley: Spatiotemporal analysis of residential flood exposure in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area. Natural Hazards. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2806-6 [PDF]
Changnon, D., 2017: A spatial and temporal analysis of 30-day heavy snowfall amounts in the Eastern United States, 1900-2016. Accepted for publication in J. Applied Meteor. and Climatology.
Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. J. Krmenec, 2017: Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential. Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1905-4 [PDF] [featured as News & Views piece in Nature Climate Change]
Briley, L. J., W. S. Ashley, R. B. Rood, and A. Krmenec, 2017: The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127, 643-654. [PDF]
Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. J. Krmenec, 2017: Observed and projected changes in United States tornado exposure. Weather, Climate, and Society, 9, 109-123. [PDF]
Gensini, V. A., and A. Marinaro, 2016: Tornado frequency in the United States related to global relative angular momentum. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 801-810. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0289.1 [PDF] (Paper of note in Science)
Ashley, W. S., and S. M. Strader, 2016: Recipe for disaster: How the dynamic ingredients of risk and exposure are changing the tornado disaster landscape. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 767-786. [PDF]
Fultz, A. J., and W. S. Ashley, 2016: Fatal weather-related general aviation accidents in the United States. Physical Geography, 37, 291-312. [PDF]
Strader, S. M., T. J. Pingel, and W. S. Ashley, 2016: A Monte Carlo model for estimating tornado impacts. Meteorological Applications, 23, 269-281. [PDF]
Haberlie, A., W. S. Ashley, A. Fultz, and S. Eagan, 2016: The effect of reservoirs on the climatology of warm-season thunderstorms in Southeast Texas, USA. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 1808–1820. [PDF]
Battaglia, S. and D. Changnon, 2016: Frost quakes: Forecasting the unanticipated clatter. Weatherwise, 69, 20-27.
Roeder, W. P., B. H. Cummins, K. L. Cummins, R. L. Holle, and W. S. Ashley, 2015: Lightning fatality risk map of the conterminous United States. Natural Hazards, 79, 1681-1692. [PDF]
Strader, S. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2015: The expanding bull’s-eye effect. Weatherwise, 68, 23-29. [PDF; quick explanation of effect]
Ashley, W. S., S. Strader, D. Dziubla, and A. Haberlie, 2015: Driving blind: Weather-related vision hazards and fatal motor vehicle crashes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 755-778. [PDF]
Rosencrants, T., and W. S. Ashley, 2015: Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five U.S. metropolitan areas. Natural Hazards, 78, 121-140. [PDF]
Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, and J. Walker, 2015: Changes in volcanic hazard exposure in the Northwest USA from 1940 to 2100. Natural Hazards, 77, 1365-1392. [PDF]
Haberlie, A., W. S. Ashley, and T. Pingel, 2015: The effect of urbanization on the climatology of thunderstorm initiation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, 663-675. [PDF]
Strader, S., W. S. Ashley, A. Irizarry, and S. Hall, 2015: A climatology of tornado intensity assessments. Meteorological Applications, 22, 513-524. [PDF]
Tippett, M. K., J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, and H. E. Brooks, 2015: Climate and hazardous convective weather. Cur. Climate Change Rep., 1 (2), 60-73. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6 [PDF]
Gensini, V. A., and T. L. Mote, 2015: Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3. Climatic Change, 129, 307-321. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1320-z [PDF]
Marinaro, A., S.D. Hilberg, D. Changnon, and J.R. Angel, 2015: The North Pacific-driven severe Midwest winter of 2013-14. J. Applied Meteor. and Climatology, 54, 2141-2151.
Haberlie, A., K. Gale, D. Changnon, and M. Tannura, 2014: Climatology of tropical system rainfall on the eastern Corn Belt. J. Applied Meteor. and Climatology, 53, 395-405
Gensini, V. A., and T. L. Mote, 2014: Estimations of hazardous convective weather in the United States using dynamical downscaling. J. Climate, 27, 6581-6598. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00777.1 [PDF]
Ashley, W. S., S. Strader, T. Rosencrants, and A. J. Krmenec, 2014: Spatiotemporal changes in tornado hazard exposure: The case of the expanding bull’s eye effect in Chicago, IL. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6, 175-193. [PDF; “Paper of Note” in BAMS; quick explanation of effect].
Strader, S., and W. S. Ashley, 2014: Cloud-to-ground lightning signatures of long-lived tornadic supercells in the Southeastern U.S. on 27-28 April 2011. Physical Geography, 35, 273-296. [PDF]
Gensini, V. A., T. L. Mote, and H. E. Brooks, 2014: Severe thunderstorm reanalysis environments and collocated radiosonde observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 742-751. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0263.1 [PDF]
Gensini, V. A., C. A. Ramseyer, and T. L. Mote, 2014: Future convective environments using NARCCAP. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1699-1705. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3769 [PDF].
Kunkel, K.E., T.R. Karl, H. Brooks, J. Kossin, J.H. Lawrimore, D. Arndt, L. Bosart, D. Changnon, S.L. Cutter, N. Doesken, K. Emmanuel, P.Y. Groisman, R.W. Katz, T. Knutson, J. O’Brien, C.J. Paciorek, T.C. Peterson, K. Redmond, D. Robinson, J. Trapp, R. Vose, S. Weaver, M. Wehner, K. Wolter, D. Wuebbles, 2013: Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: State of knowledge. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94, 499-514
Barrett, B. S., and V. A. Gensini, 2013: Variability of central U.S. April-May tornado day likelihood by phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40 (11), 2790-2795. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50522 [PDF]
Stallins, J. A., J. Carpenter, M. Bentley, W. Ashley, and J. Mulholland, 2013: Weekend-weekday aerosols and geographic variability in cloud-to-ground lightning for the urban region of Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Regional Environmental Change. 13, 137-151. [PDF]
Knox, J. A., J. A. Rackley, A. W. Black, V. A. Gensini, M. Butler, C. Dunn, T. Gallo, M. R. Hunter, L. Lindsey, M. Phan, R. Scroggs, and S. Brustad, 2013: Tornado debris characteristics and trajectories during the 27 April 2011 super outbreak as determined using social media data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1371-1380. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00036.1 [PDF]
Ashley, W. S., M. L. Bentley, and J. A. Stallins, 2012: Urban-induced thunderstorm modification in the Southeast United States. Climatic Change, 113, 481-498. [PDF]
Bentley, M. L., J. A. Stallins, and W. S. Ashley, 2012: Synoptic environments favorable for urban-enhanced convection in Atlanta, Georgia. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 1287-1294. [PDF]
Gensini, V. A., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Climatology of potentially severe convective environments from the North American regional reanalysis. Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 6(8), 1-40. [PDF]
Paulikas, M. J., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Thunderstorm hazard vulnerability for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan region. Natural Hazards, 58, 1077-1092. [PDF]
Spencer, J. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Avalanche fatalities in the western United States: A comparison of three databases. Natural Hazards, 58, 31-44. [PDF]
Black, A. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: The relationship between tornadic and nontornadic convective wind fatalities and warnings. Weather, Climate, and Society, 3, 31-47. [PDF]
Schoen, J., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: A climatology of fatal convective wind events by storm type. Weather and Forecasting, 26, 109-121. [PDF]
Gensini, V. A., A. W. Black, D. Changnon, and S. A. Changnon, 2011: September 2008 heavy rains in Northeast Illinois: Meteorological analysis and impacts. Trans. Ill. State Acad. Sci., 104, 17–33. [PDF]
Black, A. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: Nontornadic convective wind fatalities in the United States. Natural Hazards, 54, 355-366. [PDF]
Gensini, V. A., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: An examination of rip current fatalities in the United States. Natural Hazards, 54, 159-175. [PDF; Formal comment and reply]
Bentley, M. L., W. S. Ashley, and J. A. Stallins, 2010: Climatological radar delineation of urban convection for Atlanta, Georgia. International Journal of Climatology, 30, 1589-1594. [PDF]
Bentley, M., T. Stallins, and W. Ashley, 2010: The Atlanta thunderstorm effect. Weatherwise, 63, 24-29. [PDF]
Changnon, D., and S.A. Changnon, 2010: Major growth in some business related uses of climate information. J. Applied Meteor. and Climatology, 49, 325-331.
Changnon, D., M. Sandstrom, J. Astolfi, J. Kopczyk, and M. Sich, 2010: Using climatology to predict the first major summer corn earworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) catch in north central Illinois. Meteorological Applications, 17, 321-328.
Changnon, S.A., and D. Changnon, 2009: Assessment of a method used to time adjust past storm losses. Natural Hazards, 50, 5-12.
Ashley, W. S., and C. W. Gilson, 2009: A reassessment of U.S. lightning mortality. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1501–1518. [PDF]
Changnon, D., C. Merinsky, and M. Lawson, 2008: Climatology of surface cyclones tracks associated with large central and eastern U.S. snowstorms, 1950-2000. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 3193-3202.
Ashley, W. S., A. J. Krmenec, and R. Schwantes, 2008: Vulnerability due to nocturnal tornadoes. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 795-807. [PDF; Paper of Note in BAMS]
Ashley, S. T., and W. S. Ashley, 2008: Flood fatalities in the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 805-818. [PDF]
Hall, S. G., and W. S. Ashley, 2008: The effects of urban sprawl on the vulnerability to a significant tornado impact in northeastern Illinois. Natural Hazards Review, 9, 209-219. [abstract; email for PDF]
Ashley, S. T., and W. S. Ashley, 2008: The storm morphology of deadly flooding events in the United States. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 493-503. [PDF]
Ashley, W. S., and A. W. Black, 2008: Fatalities associated with nonconvective high-wind events in the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 717-725. [PDF]
Ashley, W. S., 2007: Spatial and temporal analysis of tornado fatalities in the United States: 1880-2005. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1214-1228. [PDF]
Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, and M. L. Bentley, 2007: An extensive episode of derecho-producing convective systems in the United States during May-June 1998: A multi-scale analysis and review. Meteorological Applications, 14, 227-244. [PDF]
Changnon, D., M. Sandstrom, and S.A. Changnon, 2007: Unusual Spring 2007 weather conditions destroy Illinois’ peach crop. Transactions of the IL State Academy of Science, 100, 225-235.
Changnon, D., and S.A. Changnon, 2007: Snowstorm dimensions across the Central and Eastern United States. Physical Geography, 28, 218-232.
Suckling, P. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2006: Spatial and temporal characteristics of tornado path direction. The Professional Geographer, 58, 20-38. [PDF]
Changnon, D., M. Sandstrom, and M. Bentley, 2006: Midwestern high dew point events 1960-2000. Physical Geography, 27, 494-504.
Changnon, D., and S.A. Changnon, 2006: Unexpected impacts of drought 2005 on Illinois crop yields: Are weather-crop relationships changing? Transactions of the Illinois State Academy of Science, 99, 37-50.
Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon and T. Karl, 2006: Temporal and spatial characteristics of snowstorms in the contiguous United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 1141-1155.
Changnon, S.A., and D. Changnon, 2006: A spatial and temporal analysis of damaging snowstorms in the United States. Natural Hazards, 37, 373-389.
Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, and M. L. Bentley, 2005: On the episodic nature of derecho-producing convective systems in the United States. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1915-1932. [PDF]
Ashley, W. S., and T. L. Mote, 2005: Derecho hazards in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1577-1592. [PDF]
Changnon, S.A. and D. Changnon, 2005: Snowstorm catastrophes in the United States. Environmental Hazards, 6, 158-166.
Friedlein, M.T., D. Changnon, E. Musselman, and J. Zielinski, 2005: Using dew points to estimate savings during a planned cooling shutdown. Meteorological Applications, 12, 319-328.
Changnon, D. and S.A. Changnon, 2005: The pre-Christmas 2004 snowstorm disaster in the Ohio River valley. Weatherwise, 58, 36-40.
Changnon, S.A. and D. Changnon, 2005: Lessons from the unusual impacts of an abnormal winter. Meteorological Applications, 12, 187-191.
Changnon, S.A. and D. Changnon, 2005: Importance of sky conditions on the record 2004 Midwestern crop yields. Physical Geography, 26, 99-111.
Changnon, D. and R. Bigley, 2005: Fluctuations in U.S. freezing rain days. Climatic Change, 69, 229-244.
Sandstrom, M.A, R.G. Lauritsen, and D. Changnon, 2004: A central U.S. summer extreme dew-point climatology (1949-2000). Physical Geography, 25, 191-207.
Changnon, D., 2004: Improving outreach in atmospheric sciences: Assessment of users of climate products. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85, 601-606.
Changnon, S.A., and D. Changnon, 2004: Unusual rainstorms in Illinois produced unusual impacts. Transactions of the Illinois Academy of Science, 97, 45-54.
Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, P. G. Dixon, S. L. Trotter, J. D. Durkee, E. J. Powell, and A. J. Grundstein, 2003: Distribution of mesoscale convective complex rainfall in the United States. Monthly Weather Review, 131, 3003-3017. [PDF]
Changnon, D., M. Sandstrom, and C. Schaffer, 2003: Relating changes in agricultural practices to increasing dew points in extreme Chicago heat waves. Climate Research, 24, 243-254.
Changnon, D., J. Sparks, A. Burgoyne, C. Hahn, and R. Seymour, 2002: Enhancing swimming pool management decisions with climate information. Meteorological Applications, 9, 461-468.
Sparks, J., D. Changnon, and J. Starke, 2002: Changes in the frequency of extreme warm-season surface dew points in northeastern Illinois. Implications for cooling-system design and operation. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 41, 890-898.
Changnon, D., J. Thompson, T. April, E. Schmidt, M. Falout, J.B. Davis, and M. Russo, 2002: Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices. Meteorological Applications, 9, 105-111.
Changnon, S.A. and D. Changnon, 2001: Long-term fluctuations in thunderstorm activity in the United States. Climatic Change, 50, 489-503.
Changnon, D., S.A. Changnon, and S.S. Changnon, 2001: A method for estimating crop hail losses in uninsured periods and regions. J. Applied Meteor., 40, 84-91.
Changnon, D., M. Ritsche, K. Elyea, S. Shelton, and K. Schramm, 2000: Integrating climate forecasts and natural gas supply information into a natural gas purchasing decision. Meteorological Applications, 7, 211-216.
Changnon, S.A. and D. Changnon, 2000: Long-term fluctuations in hail incidences in the United States. J. of Climate, 13, 658-664.
Changnon, S.A., R.A. Pielke, Jr., D. Changnon, R.T. Sylves, and R. Pulwarty, 2000: Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 437-442.
Meehl, G.A., T. Karl, D.R. Easterling, S.A. Changnon, R. Pielke Jr., D. Changnon, J. Evans, P.Y. Groisman, T.R. Knutson, K.E. Kunkel, L.O. Mearns, C. Parmesan, R. Pulwarty, T. Root, R.T. Sylves, P. Whetton, and F. Zwiers, 2000: An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: Observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 413-416.
Changnon, D., T. Creech, N. Marsili, W. Murrell, and M. Saxinger, 1999: Interactions with a Weather-Sensitive Decision-Maker: A Case Study Incorporating ENSO Information Into a Strategy for Purchasing Natural Gas. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1117-1125.
Russo, M., D. Changnon, M.Podolak, and H. Freestrom, 1999: Using Equatorial Pacific Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies to Forecast Seasonal Energy Demand in Four U.S. Regions: An Applied Climate Research Experience for Undergraduate Meteorology Students. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1139-1147.
Skinner, B.D., D. Changnon, M.B. Richman, and P.J. Lamb, 1999: Damaging Weather Conditions in the United States: A Selection of Data Quality and Monitoring Issues. Climate Change, 42, No. 1, 69-87.
Changnon, S.A., and D. Changnon, 1999: Record High Losses from Weather Disasters in the United States During the 1990s: How Excessive and Why? Natural Hazards, 13, 287-300.
Noel, J.J. and D. Changnon, 1998: A Pilot Study Examining United States Winter Cyclone Frequency Patterns Associated with Three ENSO Parameters. J. Climate, 11, 2152-2159.
Changnon, D. and S.A. Changnon, 1998: Evaluation of Weather Catastrophe Data for Use in Climate Change Investigations. Climatic Change, 38, 435-445.
Changnon, D. and S.A. Changnon, 1998: Climatological Relevance of Major U.S.A. Weather Losses during 1991-1994. International Journal of Climatology, 18, 37-48.
Changnon, D., 1998: Design and Test of a “Hands-on” Applied Climate Course in an Undergraduate Meteorology Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 79-84.
Changnon, D. and S.A. Changnon, 1997: Surrogate Data to Estimate Crop-hail Loss. J. Applied Meteor., 36, 1202-1210.
Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, E.R. Fosse, D.C. Hoganson, R.J. Roth, and J.M. Totsch, 1997: Effects of Recent Weather Extremes on the Insurance Industry: Major Implications for the Atmospheric Sciences. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 425-435.
Changnon, D., 1996: Changing Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Midwestern Hydrologic Droughts. Physical Geography, 17, 29-46.
Changnon, D., D. Fox, and S. Bork, 1996: Differences in Warm-season, Rainstorm-generated Stormflows for Northeastern Illinois Urbanized Basins. Water Resources Bulletin, 32, No. 6, 1307-1317.
Changnon, S.A., J.M. Changnon, and D. Changnon, 1995: Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 711-720.
Changnon, D., J.J. Noel, and L.H. Maze, 1995: Determining Cyclone Frequencies Using Equal-area Circles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2285-2294.
Changnon, D. and P. Shafran, 1995: Variability in Illinois Summer Precipitation: An Analysis of Nine Selected Stations. Transactions Ill. Acad. Science, 88, 29-38.
Changnon, D., 1994: Describing Identified Regional Variations in Large Daily Precipitation Amounts. International Journal of Climatology, 14, 165-177.
Changnon, D., 1993: Variability in High Temperature Extremes in the Southeastern United States. Physical Geography, 14, No. 6, 599-611.
Changnon, D., T.B. McKee, and N.J. Doesken, 1993: Describing Identified Annual Snowpack Patterns and Long-term Trends Across the Rockies Using 500 mb Synoptic Patterns. Monthly Weather Review, 121, No. 3, 633-647.
Changnon, D., T.B. McKee, and N.J. Doesken, 1991: Hydro-climatic Variability in the Rocky Mountains. Water Resources Bulletin, 27, No. 5, 733-743.
Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and R.B. Pyle, 1988: Thunder Events and Cloud‑to‑ground Lightning Frequencies. Journal of Geophysical Res., 93, No. D8, 9495‑9502, August 20, 1988.
Changnon, S.A. and D. Changnon, 1978: Winter Storms and the Record‑breaking Winter in Illinois. Weatherwise, 31, 218‑225.
Other selected publications:
Ashley, W. S., and V. Gensini, 2017: Weather, extreme weather, and extreme storms. The International Encyclopedia of Geography. Richardson et al. Eds., Wiley-Blackwell. [PDF]
Ashley, W. S., S. M. Strader, T. Rosencrants, and A. J. Krmenec, 2014: Is the Expanding Bull’s Eye Effect leading to greater and more frequent weather disasters? Paper of Note. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 95, 510-511. [PDF]
Ashley, W. S., P. Young, and F. Schwantes, 2013: An inexpensive webcam system for capturing live skyscapes and time-lapse cloudscapes. Preprints, 22nd Symposium on Education, American Meteorological Society. 4 pp. [PDF]
Fuhrmann, C., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: Lightning. Encyclopedia of Geography. B. Warf Ed., SAGE Publications, 1780-1784.
Sandstrom, M., D. Changnon, and B. Flood, 2007: Improving our understanding of H. zea migration in the Midwest: Assessment of Source Populations. Manuscript for Symposium Proceeedings on Helicoverpa zea Susceptibility to Pyrethroids in the Midwest. Online. Plant Health Progress doi:10.1094/PHP-2007-0MDD-01-RV, 9 pp.
Fuhrmann, C., and W. S. Ashley, 2006: Cloud-to-ground lightning characteristics of derecho-producing convective systems in the central and southern Great Plains. Preprints, 23rd Annual Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society. 6 pp. [PDF]