Refereed Publications

Ashley, W. S., A. M. Haberlie, and V. A. Gensini, 2022: The future of supercells in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,  DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0027.1

Hecht, C. W., Michaelis, A. C., Martin, A. C., Cordeira, J. M., Cannon, F., & Ralph, F. M., 2022: Illustrating Ensemble Predictability across Scales Associated with the 13–15 February 2019 Atmospheric River Event, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.103(3), E911-E922. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0292.1

Haberlie, A. M., W. S. Ashley, C. Battisto, and V. A. Gensini, 2022: Intermediate and extreme warming scenarios modify future thunderstorm activity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 5, 49, e2022GL098779. DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098779

Fish, M. A., Done, J. M., Swain, D. L., Wilson, A. M., Michaelis, A. C., Gibson, P. B., & Ralph, F. M., 2022: Large-Scale Environments of Successive Atmospheric River Events Leading to Compound Precipitation Extremes in California, J. Climate5, 1515-1536. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0168.1

Gensini V. A. , A. M. Haberlie, and W. S. Ashley, 2022: Convection-permitting simulations of historical and possible future climate over the contiguous United States. Clim. Dyn., DOI:  10.1007/s00382-022-06306-0

Miller, D. E., V. A. Gensini, and B. S. Barrett, 2022: Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency. npj Climate and Atmos. Science5, 37. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-022-00263-5

Bundy, L. R., Gensini, V. A., & Russo, M. S., 2022. Insured Corn Losses in the US from Weather and Climate Perils. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 61, 969–988. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0245.1

Michaelis, A. C., A. Gershunov, A. Weyant, M. A. Fish, T. Shulgina, and F. M. Ralph, 2022: Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm that Contributed to California’s Oroville Dam Crisis. Earth’s Future, 10, e2021EF002537, doi:10.1029/2021EF002537.

Stevens, B. R., and W. S. Ashley, 2022: Fatal weather-related carbon monoxide poisonings in the United States. Weather, Climate, and Society.

Bundy L. and V. A. Gensini, 2021: An assessment of USDA corn condition ratings across the U.S. Corn Belt. Agron. J., , DOI: 10.1002/agj2.20973

Michaelis, A. C., A. C. Martin, M. A. Fish, C. W. Hecht, and F. M. Ralph, 2021: Modulation of Atmospheric Rivers by Mesoscale Frontal Waves and Latent Heating: Comparison of Two U.S. West Coast Events. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 2755–2776, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-20-0364.1.

Lackmann, G. M., R. L. Miller, W. A. Robinson, and A. C. Michaelis, 2021: Persistent Anomaly Changes in High-Resolution Climate Simulations. J. Climate, 34, 5425–5442, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0465.1.

Michaelis, A. C., and G. M. Lackmann, 2021: Storm-Scale Dynamical Changes of Extratropical Transition Events in Present-Day and Future High-Resolution Global Simulations. J. Climate, 34, 5037–5062, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0472.1.

Gensini V. A., C. Converse, W. S. Ashley, and M. Taszarek, 2021: Machine learning classification of significant tornadoes and hail in the U.S. using ERA5 proximity soundings. Wea. Forecasting, 36, 2143-2160, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0056.1

Fritzen, R., V. Lang, and V. A. Gensini, 2021: Trends and variability of North American cool-season extratropical cyclones: 1979–2019. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 60, 1319-1331, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0276.1

Eboh, H., C. Gallaher, T. Pingel, and W. S. Ashley, 2020: Risk perception in small island developing states: A case study in the Commonwealth of Dominica. Nat. Hazards. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04342-9

Haberlie, A. M., W. S. Ashley, and M. Karpinski, 2020: Mean storms: Composites of radar reflectivity images during two decades of severe thunderstorm events. International Journal of Climatology. DOI 10.1002/joc.6804

Demirdjian, R., J. D. Doyle, C. A. Reynolds, J. R. Norris, A. C. Michaelis, and F. M. Ralph, 2020: A Case Study of the Physical Processes Associated with the Atmospheric River Initial Condition Sensitivity from an Adjoint Model. J. Atmos. Sciences, 77, 691–709, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-19-0155.1.

Taszarek, M., N. Pilguj, J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, H. E. Brooks, and P. Szuster, 2020: Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA2 with sounding data over Europe and North America. J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0484.1

W. S., A. M. Haberlie, and V. A. Gensini, 2020: Reduced frequency and size of late twenty-first-century snowstorms over North America. Nat. Clim. Chang., 1–6.

Gensini V. A. , A. M. Haberlie, and P. T. Marsh, 2020: Practically perfect hindcasts of severe convective storms. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, E1259–E1278

Gensini V. A. , B. S. Barrett, J. T. Allen, D. Gold, and P. Sirvatka, 2020: The Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecast (ERTAF) Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, E700–E709.

Ash, K, M. J. Egnoto, S. M. Strader, W. S. Ashley, D. B. Roueche, K. E. Klockow-McClain, D. Caplen, and M. Dickerson, 2020: Structural forces: Perception and vulnerability factors for tornado sheltering within mobile and manufactured housing in Alabama and Mississippi, USA. Weather, Climate, and Society, 12, 453–472.

Michaelis, A. C., and G. M. Lackmann, 2019: Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations. J. Climate, 32, 8733–8753, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0259.1.
Michaelis, A. C., G. M. Lackmann, and W. A. Robinson, 2019: Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3725–3743, doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3725-2019.

Tang, B. H., V. A. Gensini, and C. R. Homeyer, 2019: Trends in United States large hail environments and observations. npj Climate and Atmos. Science., 2, 45. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2

Gensini, V. A., D. Gold, J. T. Allen, and B. S. Barrett, 2019: Extended U.S. tornado outbreak during late May 2019: A forecast of opportunity. Geophys. Res. Lett.46. DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084470

Changnon, D., and V. A. Gensini, 2019: Changing spatiotemporal patterns of 5- and 10-day Illinois heavy precipitation amounts, 1900-2018. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.58, 1523–1533. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0335.1

Ashley, W. S., A. M. Haberlie, and J. Strohm, 2019: A climatology of quasi-linear convective systems and their hazards in the United States. Weather and Forecasting34, 1605-1631.

Haberlie, A. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2019: A radar-based climatology of mesoscale convective systems in the United States. Journal of Climate32, 1591-1606.

Haberlie, A. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2019: Climatological representation of mesoscale convective systems in a dynamically downscaled climate simulation. International Journal of Climatology39, 1144-1153.

Gensini, V. A., and L. B. de Guenni, 2019: Environmental covariate representation of seasonal U.S. tornado frequency. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.58, 1353–1367. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0305.1

Gensini, V. A., and M. K. Tippett, 2019: Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) predictions of days 1–15 U.S. tornado and hail frequencies. Geophys. Res. Lett.46, 2922–2930. DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081724

Gensini, V. A.and H. E. Brooks, 2018: Spatial trends in United States tornado activity. npj Climate and Atmos. Science., 1, 1–5. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2

Molina, M. J., J. T. Allen, and V. A. Gensini, 2018: The Gulf of Mexico influence on subseasonal and seasonal CONUS winter tornado variability. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0046.1

Allen, J. T., M. J. Molina, and V. A. Gensini, 2018: Modulation of annual cycle of tornadoes by El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett.45, 5708–5717. DOI: 10.1029/2018GL077482 [PDF]

Strader, S. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2018: Fine-scale assessment of mobile home tornado vulnerability in the Central and Southeast U.S. Weather, Climate, and Society. [PDF]

Haberlie, A. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2018: Identifying mesoscale convective systems in radar mosaics. Part I. Segmentation and classification. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0293.1 [PDF]

Haberlie, A. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2018: Identifying mesoscale convective systems in radar mosaics. Part II. Tracking and application. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0294.1 [PDF]

Gensini, V. A., and J. T. Allen, 2018: United States hail frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett.45, 1611–1620. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076822 [PDF]

Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. J. Krmenec, 2018: How land use alters the tornado disaster landscape. Applied Geography, 94, 18–29. [PDF]

Michaelis, A. C., J. Willison, G. M. Lackmann, and W. A. Robinson, 2017: Changes in Winter North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Regional Pseudo-Global Warming Simulations. J. Climate, 30, 6905–6925, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0697.1.

Freeman, A., and W. S. Ashley, 2017: Changes in the U.S. hurricane disaster landscape: The relationship between risk and exposure. Natural Hazards, 88, 659–682. [PDF]

Ferguson, A. P., and W. S. Ashley, 2017: Spatiotemporal analysis of residential flood exposure in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area. Natural Hazards, 87, 989–1016. [PDF]

Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. J. Krmenec, 2017: Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential. Climatic Change, 141, 301–313. [PDF] [featured as News & Views piece in Nature Climate Change]

Briley, L. J., W. S. Ashley, R. B. Rood, and A. Krmenec, 2017:  The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127, 643-654. [PDF]

Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. J. Krmenec, 2017: Observed and projected changes in United States tornado exposure. Weather, Climate, and Society, 9, 109-123. [PDF]

Gensini, V. A., and A. Marinaro, 2016: Tornado frequency in the United States related to global relative angular momentum. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 801-810. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0289.1 [PDF] (Paper of note in Science)

Ashley, W. S., and S. M. Strader, 2016: Recipe for disaster: How the dynamic ingredients of risk and exposure are changing the tornado disaster landscape. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 767-786.  [PDF]

Fultz, A. J., and W. S. Ashley, 2016: Fatal weather-related general aviation accidents in the United States. Physical Geography, 37, 291-312. [PDF]

Strader, S. M., T. J. Pingel, and W. S. Ashley, 2016: A Monte Carlo model for estimating tornado impacts. Meteorological Applications, 23, 269-281. [PDF]

Haberlie, A., W. S. Ashley, A. Fultz, and S. Eagan, 2016:  The effect of reservoirs on the climatology of warm-season thunderstorms in Southeast Texas, USA. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 1808–1820. [PDF]

Roeder, W. P., B. H. Cummins, K. L. Cummins, R. L. Holle, and W. S. Ashley, 2015:  Lightning fatality risk map of the conterminous United States. Natural Hazards, 79, 1681-1692. [PDF]

Strader, S. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2015: The expanding bull’s-eye effect. Weatherwise, 68, 23-29. [PDF; quick explanation of effect]

Ashley, W. S., S. Strader, D. Dziubla, and A. Haberlie, 2015:  Driving blind: Weather-related vision hazards and fatal motor vehicle crashes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 755-778. [PDF]

Rosencrants, T., and W. S. Ashley, 2015:  Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five U.S. metropolitan areas. Natural Hazards, 78, 121-140. [PDF]

Strader, S. M., W. S. Ashley, and J. Walker, 2015: Changes in volcanic hazard exposure in the Northwest USA from 1940 to 2100. Natural Hazards, 77, 1365-1392. [PDF]

Haberlie, A., W. S. Ashley, and T. Pingel, 2015:  The effect of urbanization on the climatology of thunderstorm initiation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, 663-675. [PDF]

Strader, S., W. S. Ashley, A. Irizarry, and S. Hall, 2015: A climatology of tornado intensity assessments. Meteorological Applications, 22, 513-524. [PDF]

Tippett, M. K., J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, and H. E. Brooks, 2015: Climate and hazardous convective weather. Cur. Climate Change Rep., 1 (2), 60-73. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6 [PDF]

Gensini, V. A., and T. L. Mote, 2015: Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3. Climatic Change, 129, 307-321. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1320-z [PDF]

Marinaro, A., S.D. Hilberg, D. Changnon, and J.R. Angel, 2015: The North Pacific-driven severe Midwest winter of 2013-14. J. Applied Meteor. and Climatology, 54, 2141-2151.

Haberlie, A., K. Gale, D. Changnon, and M. Tannura, 2014: Climatology of tropical system rainfall on the eastern Corn Belt.  J. Applied Meteor. and Climatology, 53, 395-405

Gensini, V. A., and T. L. Mote, 2014: Estimations of hazardous convective weather in the United States using dynamical downscaling. J. Climate, 27, 6581-6598. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00777.1 [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., S. Strader, T. Rosencrants, and A. J. Krmenec, 2014: Spatiotemporal changes in tornado hazard exposure: The case of the expanding bull’s eye effect in Chicago, IL. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6, 175-193. [PDF; “Paper of Note” in BAMS; quick explanation of effect].

Strader, S., and W. S. Ashley, 2014: Cloud-to-ground lightning signatures of long-lived tornadic supercells in the Southeastern U.S. on 27-28 April 2011. Physical Geography, 35, 273-296. [PDF]

Gensini, V. A., T. L. Mote, and H. E. Brooks, 2014: Severe thunderstorm reanalysis environments and collocated radiosonde observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 742-751. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0263.1 [PDF]

Gensini, V. A., C. A. Ramseyer, and T. L. Mote, 2014: Future convective environments using NARCCAP. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1699-1705. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3769 [PDF].

Barrett, B. S., and V. A. Gensini, 2013: Variability of central U.S. April-May tornado day likelihood by phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40 (11), 2790-2795. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50522 [PDF]

Stallins, J. A., J. Carpenter, M. Bentley, W. Ashley, and J. Mulholland, 2013: Weekend-weekday aerosols and geographic variability in cloud-to-ground lightning for the urban region of Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Regional Environmental Change. 13, 137-151. [PDF]

Knox, J.  A., J.  A. Rackley, A.  W. Black, V.  A. Gensini, M. Butler, C. Dunn, T. Gallo, M.  R. Hunter, L. Lindsey, M. Phan, R. Scroggs, and S. Brustad, 2013: Tornado debris characteristics and trajectories during the 27 April 2011 super outbreak as determined using social media data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1371-1380. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00036.1 [PDF]

Michaelis, A. C., and G. M. Lackmann, 2013: Numerical modeling of a historic storm: Simulating the Blizzard of 1888. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4092-4097, doi:10.1002/grl.50750

Ashley, W. S., M. L. Bentley, and J. A. Stallins, 2012: Urban-induced thunderstorm modification in the Southeast United States. Climatic Change, 113, 481-498. [PDF]

Bentley, M. L., J. A. Stallins, and W. S. Ashley, 2012: Synoptic environments favorable for urban-enhanced convection in Atlanta, Georgia. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 1287-1294. [PDF]

Gensini, V. A., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Climatology of potentially severe convective environments from the North American regional reanalysis. Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 6(8), 1-40. [PDF]

Paulikas, M. J., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Thunderstorm hazard vulnerability for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan region. Natural Hazards, 58, 1077-1092. [PDF]

Spencer, J. M., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Avalanche fatalities in the western United States: A comparison of three databases. Natural Hazards, 58, 31-44. [PDF]

Black, A. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: The relationship between tornadic and nontornadic convective wind fatalities and warnings. Weather, Climate, and Society, 3, 31-47. [PDF]

Schoen, J., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: A climatology of fatal convective wind events by storm type. Weather and Forecasting, 26, 109-121. [PDF]

Gensini, V. A., A. W. Black, D. Changnon, and S. A. Changnon, 2011: September 2008 heavy rains in Northeast Illinois: Meteorological analysis and impacts. Trans. Ill. State Acad. Sci., 104, 1733. [PDF]

Black, A. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: Nontornadic convective wind fatalities in the United States. Natural Hazards, 54, 355-366. [PDF]

Gensini, V. A., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: An examination of rip current fatalities in the United States. Natural Hazards, 54, 159-175. [PDF; Formal comment and reply]

Bentley, M. L., W. S. Ashley, and J. A. Stallins, 2010: Climatological radar delineation of urban convection for Atlanta, Georgia. International Journal of Climatology, 30, 1589-1594. [PDF]

Bentley, M., T. Stallins, and W. Ashley, 2010: The Atlanta thunderstorm effect. Weatherwise, 63, 24-29. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., and C. W. Gilson, 2009:  A reassessment of U.S. lightning mortality. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1501–1518. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., A. J. Krmenec, and R. Schwantes, 2008:  Vulnerability due to nocturnal tornadoes. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 795-807. [PDF; Paper of Note in BAMS]

Ashley, S. T., and W. S. Ashley, 2008:  Flood fatalities in the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 805-818. [PDF]

Hall, S. G., and W. S. Ashley, 2008:  The effects of urban sprawl on the vulnerability to a significant tornado impact in northeastern Illinois. Natural Hazards Review, 9, 209-219. [abstract; email for PDF]

Ashley, S. T., and W. S. Ashley, 2008:  The storm morphology of deadly flooding events in the United States. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 493-503. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., and A. W. Black, 2008:  Fatalities associated with nonconvective high-wind events in the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 717-725. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., 2007:  Spatial and temporal analysis of tornado fatalities in the United States: 1880-2005. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1214-1228. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, and M. L. Bentley, 2007:  An extensive episode of derecho-producing convective systems in the United States during May-June 1998: A multi-scale analysis and review.  Meteorological Applications, 14, 227-244. [PDF]

Suckling, P. W., and W. S. Ashley, 2006:  Spatial and temporal characteristics of tornado path direction. The Professional Geographer, 58, 20-38. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, and M. L. Bentley, 2005:  On the episodic nature of derecho-producing convective systems in the United States. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1915-1932. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., and T. L. Mote, 2005:  Derecho hazards in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1577-1592. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., T. L. Mote, P. G. Dixon, S. L. Trotter, J. D. Durkee, E. J. Powell, and A. J. Grundstein, 2003:  Distribution of mesoscale convective complex rainfall in the United States. Monthly Weather Review, 131, 3003-3017. [PDF]

Other selected publications:

Ashley, W. S., and V. Gensini, 2017: Weather, extreme weather, and extreme storms. The International Encyclopedia of Geography. Richardson et al. Eds., Wiley-Blackwell. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., S. M. Strader, T. Rosencrants, and A. J. Krmenec, 2014: Is the Expanding Bull’s Eye Effect leading to greater and more frequent weather disasters? Paper of Note. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 95, 510-511. [PDF]

Ashley, W. S., P. Young, and F. Schwantes, 2013: An inexpensive webcam system for capturing live skyscapes and time-lapse cloudscapes. Preprints, 22nd Symposium on Education, American Meteorological Society. 4 pp. [PDF]

Fuhrmann, C., and W. S. Ashley, 2010: Lightning. Encyclopedia of Geography. B. Warf Ed., SAGE Publications, 1780-1784.

Sandstrom, M., D. Changnon, and B. Flood, 2007: Improving our understanding of H. zea migration in the Midwest: Assessment of Source Populations. Manuscript for Symposium Proceeedings on Helicoverpa zea Susceptibility to Pyrethroids in the Midwest. Online. Plant Health Progress doi:10.1094/PHP-2007-0MDD-01-RV, 9 pp.

Fuhrmann, C., and W. S. Ashley, 2006: Cloud-to-ground lightning characteristics of derecho-producing convective systems in the central and southern Great Plains. Preprints, 23rd Annual Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society. 6 pp. [PDF]